#MLB13Cutch


If you've been on twitter or facebook the past few days you've probably noticed the new trending hashtag, #MLB13Cutch. The hashtag has been trending in the Pittsburgh area since yesterday and will hopefully continue to do so for the rest of the week, until the voting ends. If you still have no idea what I'm talking about let me explain.

MLB 13 The Show every year obviously selects one player to be on the cover of  their video game every year and this year they decided to select the player through a fan vote. The Show nominated seven players for the title honors including Miguel Cabrera, Matt Kemp, C.C. Sabathia, Bryce Harper, Buster Posey, Ryan Braun and of course Andrew McCutchen. As of the time of this post McCutchen has a surprising lead in the pools with around 30,000 votes at this point.

If you want to vote for McCutchen you can do so either though twitter or facebook, with on twitter its as easy as just hashtaging MLB13Cutch inside your tweets. Even though it probably makes no difference towards anything at all it would still be really cool to a Pirate on the cover of a video game like this, so go vote.


Optimal Opening Day Batting Order

As a stat oriented guy there are some things I like to do every once in awhile to try to see how someone who thinks strictly the "scientific" way of baseball would do something. One of the more interesting things you can do this with is setting the batting order. Every year there are debates on who should hit where in the batting order, and very rarely are they even close to coming up with the optimal batting order for that particular team.

So what I did is figured out going off of last years stats what the absolute best batting order would be for the Pirates on Opening Day 2013, and the results were defiantly surprising. All I had to do was type in the batting order I projected the Pirates to have on opening day and a few key stats about each player to go along with it and once I did that it gave me what they thought would be the best batting order in 2013.

Probable Order
1.Starling Marte
2.Neil Walker
3.Andrew McCutchen
4.Garrett Jones
5.Pedro Alvarez
6.Russell Martin
7.Travis Snider
8.Clint Barmes
9. Pitcher

Baseball Musings.com Optimal Order
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Starling Marte
3. Travis Snider
4. Garrett Jones
5. Neil Walker
6. Pedro Alvarez
7. Russell Martin
8. Pitcher
9. Clint Barmes

As you can tell with just a quick look the two lineups are extremely different. The first thing that stands out to me on baseball musings order is that the pitcher is hitting eighth on all of its optimal lineups, we have seen managers do this before in the past and most of the time they were torn apart for doing so. Another thing that stands out to me is the fact that McCutchen is hitting first. McCutchen led the team in home-runs last year and also hits for a good average, which had me thinking he would be the three hitter but with his extremely high OBP baseball musings had him hitting first. Travis Snider is also hitting third Baseball Musings lineup which I found extremely interesting considering Snider didn't have really that great of a season at all last year.

So how big of a difference would this lineup make you ask? Well a pretty large one, for the lineup that the Pirates will probably start the season with they are projected to score 3.794 runs per game while with Baseball Musings lineup they are projected to score 4.175 runs per game, that's a difference of .381 runs per game. With a 162 game season that's nearly 62 runs per per season, if you take my theory that about 15 runs equals one win then the Pirates will be wasting about four wins in 2013! Four wins is huge, four wins last year would of been the difference between a breaking the streak and extending it to two full centuries. Four wins is about worth about 20 million on the free agent market, which to a small market team like the Pirates is huge.

The fact of the matter is the Pirates are never going to start the lineup that the sabermetric junkie thinks they should, so they're going to have to win with the lineup they have. It sure would be interesting to see how the Pirates would do though if they did start the sabermetric lineup.

Projected 25 Man Roster

So I haven't written on the blog in awhile partly because I got so frustrated towards the end of the season last year with the whole collapse thing and all but finally the true baseball fan is starting to come back out of me and I can't resist but to start writing again, I need to get my thoughts and opinions out there somehow. Starting now until hopefully the end of next season I'm going to try to write as much as I can on the site, hopefully I can get a few of those old readers back.
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 I figured a good way to get back into the blog considering its January and there's not a whole lot going on is to put out my projected opening day 25 man roster. The way this is going to work is I'm going to go through all the aspects of the team starting with the starting pitching going all the way down to my projected bench. One thing to remember when reading this is that obviously none of this is even close to official, through spring training and injuries to some many players could make the roster that would not even come to mind when I'm writing this post. For example I don't think there are to many people that would of picked Matt Hague to make the opening day roster at this point last year, but sure of enough he had his name called just like everyone else.

Starting pitching is where I'll start, when you look at the rotation coming into this year you see four out of the five spots pretty much locked up. First you see A.J. Burnett who had a fantastic come back season in 2012, making a strong impression on Pirate fans his first year in Pittsburgh. Secondly you see James McDonald who started the season as strong as anyone last year but quickly took a rapid left turn for the worse the second half of the season. The Pirates are also fortunate enough to have two quality left handed starters that are also pretty much guaranteed spots in the rotation in 2013. Wandy Rodriguez who was acquired from the Astros at the deadline last year is back for his second year in Pittsburgh. The second left hander the Pirates have this year came as much of a surprise when the Pirates announced that they would sign Francisco Liriano for 12.75 million over two years. I personally really like this sign as Liriano has some good stuff and high strikeout numbers, if he can learn to have a little more control he can be a really valuable piece to the Pirates this year. This leaves the Pirates with one open spot left in the rotation, the two it looks like it will come down to is Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson, with possibly someone like Vin Mazzaro in the mix as well. It will probably be whoever pitches better in spring training will win the spot, but the Pirates might already have a favorite for the spot in mind. Another thing to remember is that Charlie Morton who missed most of the season last year with Tommy John surgery will probably be healthy and ready to pitch about two months or 60 games into the season, it will be interesting to see how the Pirates handle this situation when they get to that point.

My guess is the Pirates will probably go with a seven man bullpen to start the year with five locks at this point. The five locks are Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, Tony Watson, and Bryan Morris. Grilli we know was signed to be the closer and although we don't know how the Pirates intend to use their bullpen I would tend to guess that Melancon who was acquired from the Red Sox in return for Joel Hanrahan will be used as some type of set up man. Jared Hughes and Bryan Morris are also strong right handers who will be used as mid to late inning guys. At this point it looks as if the only lefty in the bullpen will be Tony Watson and can be used as either a match up guy or for a full inning when needed. The last two spots are up for grabs and could go to either Chris Leroux, Justin Wilson, Rick van den Hurk Zach Stewart, or even Andrew Oliver. Both Oliver and Wilson are left handers and could make a difference if either one was added to be the second lefty in the pen. With two spots to give, at this point I would guess they would go to Leroux and Wilson, that assuming that the loser between Locke and McPherson for the fifth spot goes to AAA

Next we go to the outfielders with at least two spots locked for sure. The Pirates obviously have Andrew McCutchen who will try to continue what he did last year in center-field although that will not be easy to do. In left the Pirates have Starling Marte who will enter his second season and try to justify his title as one of the Pirates best prospects coming up through the system. In right is where we have a very sticky situation with four players who could win the spot with Travis Snider, Jose Tabata, Alex Presley, and the newly acquired Jerry Sands. The Pirates can probably choose two of these guys to put on the roster and my opinion it will be Travis Snider and Jose Tabata. I think Travis Snider will be the starter in right, I think the Pirates still have high hopes for Snider because if they didn't I don't think they would of traded Brad Lincoln for him straight up at the deadline last year I think Tabata will be the fourth outfielder because honestly Hurdle doesn't really seem to like Presley and the Pirates still probably want to develop Jerry Sands more before they put him on the big club. There always is the possibility that the Pirates keep both Tabata and Presley on the 25 man but I personally am very opposed to have 5 outfielders on the team especially when you already have someone like Garret Jones who could play right field with the drop of a hat.

In the infield it seems like the Pirates plan on using some kind of platoon at first base with Garret Jones and Gaby Sanchez even if it's not 100% right vs left or left vs right. At second the Pirates obviously have Neil Walker coming back for another season. At shortstop as much as many people hate to hear it Clint Barmes will be back again, even though he doesn't have a huge bat he does have a very nice glove which is first priority for a shortstop. At third base Pedro Alvarez will be looking to keep up his power numbers but cut down on his strikeouts, if he can do this it will be another big step for Alvarez. The Pirates in my opinion should have two back up infielders one being pretty much a lock with Josh Harrison who can play just about any position on the field, although he doesn't really play any of them to well. I'm not 100% sure who should be the second back up but I'm leaning towards Jordy Mercer, Mercer can play short and second and some potential at the plate.

At Catcher its pretty simple with Russell Martin another big signing for the Pirates this offseason is set to be the starter. The back up is once again "the fort" a.k.a. Michael McKenry who had a much better then expected season last year. I just think most people are going to be happy they don't have to watch Rod Barajas day in day out this season.

Sooo with all that it leaves my final 25 man roster looking something like this

Starting Rotation
  A.J. Burnett
  James McDonald
  Wandy Rodriguez
  Francisco Liriano
  Jeff Locke

Bullpen
  Jason Grilli
  Mark Melancon
  Jared Hughes
  Tony Watson
  Bryan Morris
  Chris Leroux
  Justin Wilson

Outfielders
  Andrew McCutchen
  Starling Marte
  Travis Snider

Infielders
  Garret Jones
  Neil Walker
  Clint Barmes
  Pedro Alvarez

Catcher
Russell Martin

Bench
  Josh Harrison
  Jordy Mercer
  Michael Mckenry
  Jose Tabata
  Gaby Sanchez

I think I should say this one more time, none of this means anything at all it's just kind of the way I think things will play out, but what do I know? I do know one thing for sure though, I can't wait for opening day to see how the roster really turns out.