Today the Pirates will return back to PNC Park where they will start a rigorous stretch of 20 games in 20 days, so what I figured I would do was take a look at each of the games that the Pirates play in this stretch and try to figure out how they might fare.
During these next 20 games the Pirates will play six series (two four game, and four three game) all against different teams. The teams that the Pirates will match up against are in order the Twins, Tigers, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Giants. These teams are a combined 189 and 212 on the year coming out at a winning percentage of .471. Just by looking at the numbers you can tell that the this is not the team's toughest stretch of games by any means, but in my opinion it is a little tougher then you would originally think.
The long stretch starts off pretty easy with probably the worst team in the league with the Twins. The Twins are 26-39 to this point but are a surprising 5-5 in their last ten. I wouldn't go as far to say that the Twins are playing well as of late, but they are defiantly playing better, but I still think the Pirates should be looking to take two of three if not more from one of the American Leagues worst. The Pirates continue the American league trend when the Tigers come to town this weekend, the second time the Pirates will face the Tigers this year. The first series did not go so well for the Pirates losing two of three and nearly getting no-hit by Justin Verlander before Josh Harrison broke it up with a line drive single in the top of the ninth. The Tigers are just 32-34 on the year but they have been hot of late going 7-3 in their last ten, and unfoutunly Verlander is scheduled to pitch again on Sunday against the lousy Kevin Correia.
After the first six games at home the Pirates go to Philadelphia where they will face the Phillies in a four game set. The Phillies have underachieved so far this year only having a record of 31-37 earning them a last place spot in the tough NL East. The Phillies still have good pitching and the ability to hit so they could easily play well and embarrass the Pirates like they did last year when the Pirates went to Citizens Bank Park, or this time the Pirates could continue their good play and win the series. The team will continue their road trip and head to St. Louis after Philadelphia and face the Cardinals. The Cardinals are currently sitting in third place in the NL Central just a half game behind the Pirates who are in second and four and a half back of the Reds who lead the division. The Cardinals won the World Series last year so obviously they are a good team not playing quite up to their expectations at this point. The Cardinals could turn it on at any time and for the Pirates sake they hope it isn't around June twenty-ninth.
The Pirates will wrap up their streak of 20 straight games at home with a four game set against the Astros and a three game set against the Giants. The Astros are in fifth place in the Central and they stink, I actually think it is surprising that they are only eleven games below .500. Since this is a four game set I think the Pirates need to take three games here because only splitting with the Astros would be a real win for them. The Giants on the other hand are another story because they come in to today at 39-30 and are playing well recently. As you have probably heard by now Matt Cain threw the first perfect game in Giants history last Wednesday, which has turned into a big boost for the whole Giants team. This should be a good test for the Pirates before the All-Star break, taking two of three should be a reasonable goal here considering the Pirates will be at home and using the bullpen a little more shouldn't be an issue because they will have the whole three day break to rest up before they will have to pitch again.
If I had to make a predication on the how the Pirates will do over this stretch I would probably go with 12-8 because if you take the Pirates winning percentage of .523 and average it with the winning percentage of the teams that had opposed the six teams the Pirates will face in the next 20 games you will get a winning percentage of around .523 which should mathematically give the Pirates 10.46 wins overt the next 20 games. Of course we all know it is impossible to have 10.46 wins so I decided to be nice and round up to 11. Then I gave the Pirates one more win on top of that because they have been so good at home this year going 19-11 when the play at PNC so since they have 13 games at home compared to the mere 7 on the road I figured this deserved another win. If the Pirates do end up going 12-8 to finish up before the all-start break they would be at seven games over .500, which we all know was the peak of their success last year. In my mind I always thought that if you were at .500 or better at the All-Star break most year's in the NL Central you would at least have a chance at a playoff berth, so if the Pirates get to that point at seven games over .500 I would say as long as there is no second half collapse, the chances look better then they have the past nineteen years.
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