Why J.Mac's Getting Lucky

I have some sad news for Bucco fans, as much as is it pains me to say, James McDonald is not as good as his basic stats say.  J. Mac according to basic stats has thrown a Cy Young caliber season so far, but is he this good?  To answer this question we need to look at BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). Right about now I assume you're asking yourself, "What the hell is BABIP".

BABIP is a measure of all balls hit into play. Therefore it only counts singles, doubles, triples, sac flies, and all other outs. It does not count however, homeruns, strikeouts, and walks. The league average BABIP is .300 that means only 30% of balls hit in play become hits.  So, if a 100 balls are hit in play 70 of them will be outs. If a pitcher has a lower BABIP it means he is getting lucky and more balls more balls hit into play will be outs.  When a pitcher has a higher BABIP it means he is getting unlucky because more balls hit in play will be hits. This is what is happening to McDonald.

J. Mac's average BABIP through 4 years is .291.  That means on average of 100 balls hit in play off of J. Mac 71 will be outs.  But, right now J. Mac's BABIP is at .258 so of a 100 balls hit in play 74 will be outs.  That 3 out difference may not sound like much, but it adds up.  If you don't believe me take these stats into consideration.

In 2009 and 2011 McDonald's BABIP was the closest to average. His ERA in those two seasons was 4.00 in 2009 and 4.21 in 2011.  Now his ERA is 2.20 and his BABIP is much lower.  As a Pirates fan I hope that this is merely coincidence, but the stats say otherwise.  J. Mac is getting lucky and his stats will unfortunately revert back to average by the end of the season.  Watch this short video for a better explanation of BABIP.