Joel Hanrahan blew his second save of the season last night against the Reds, but unlike most people I was not particularly surprised about this. Hanrahan has still gotten the save in 15 out of 17 opportunities so far this year but he has not looked nearly as sharp as he did in his 2011 campaign. I do think that if Hanrahan does not fix some things that he could blow even more saves in the future, costing the Pirates valuable wins.
There are a few obvious stats that stick out to me right right off the bat that show that Hanrahan is not up to par, one of those stats being his walks. Hanrahan has only pitched about 1/3 of the total innings that he had pitched last year and he already has 13 total walks compared to his 16 all of last year. I know this is obvious but it is really hard to not give up runs when you are giving the other team free base-runners like Hanrahan is. It is especially important in a reliever's role to not give up walks because most of the time you are coming in a one or two run game so any run you give up is especially important.
Another eyebrow raising stat is Hanrahan's especially high number of home-runs allowed. Hanrahan has already given up four home-run's this year compared to his one all of last year. This is a 400% percent increase and we are only 1/3 of the way through the season. Granted only one home-run in 68.2 innings is outstanding for any pitcher but allowing four in only 22 innings is especially bad. If Hanrahan continues on this pace he will finish the season with 12 home-run's allowed. This high of a total is not close to what should be expected by a 4.1 million dollar a year closer like Hanrahan.
The next stat that jumps out to me is Hanrahan's ERA. I myself am not a particular big fan in reliever's ERA but I think in this situation it is very telling. To this point in the season Hanrahan has an ERA of 2.86 not terrible by any means but it is still a whole run higher then his ERA last year of 2.83. You can live with a 2.86 ERA but in my estimation I see this ERA going up. This seems like a fairly random prediction but trust me I have a reason for this. Hanrahan's BABIP is at a crazy low mark for this point in the season at .191. In case you are not aware BABIP is is basically a number to tell you how lucky or how unlucky a pitcher or hitter is getting. For a pitcher the lower the BABIP the luckier you are the higher the BABIP the more unlucky you are. If you are more interested on the stat you can read one of our previous article's here where it explains BABIP when talking about James McDonald. There is no way that Hanrahan can keep this luck the entire season which means that he will give up more runs and blow more saves unless he figures out what he is doing wrong and fixes it.
The last thing that is standing out to me is Hanrahan's loss of velocity from 2011 to 2012. This is something that has gone unnoticed by most but not by me. Last year Hanrahan averaged a speed of 97.0 MPH on his fastball, fast enough to blow by even some of the best hitters in the league. This year Hanrahan has a speed of only 95.9 MPH on his fastball. This might not seem like much to you but to a major league hitter it makes a huge difference. This mere 1.1 MPH drop of Hanrahan's fastball has caused Hanrahan's fly-ball percentage to rise from 28.6% all the way to 51.0%. In my opinion a 22.4% increase in fly-balls is enough evidence to say that major league hitters can tell and take advantage of a velocity drop of 1.1 MPH.
Joel Hanrahan has gotten to this point in the season with average stats and has gotten away with it 15 out of 17 times. This will not continue unless Hanrahan makes a change. I am not a pitching coach or even much of a pitcher so I can not tell you what Hanrahan is doing wrong mechanically but he is defiantly not doing anything perfectly. The Pirates are a team that can not afford to blow a lot of games late, every chance they have a chance to win in the ninth inning they must do it. If the Pirates want to win a championship like Hanrahan himself says he wants to and thinks they can do then, or even be a contender for the playoffs then Hanrahan must find the hammer within him and bring it out for the world to see.
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